Here’s another Truth vs. Myth question to test your lottery smarts: Do you have a better chance of winning when the jackpot is smaller?
Some people say they think that’s true. But it’s a myth.
All the plays in a lotto game (including Powerball® and Mega Millions®) have the same odds of winning, no matter the size of the jackpot.
That’s because the odds are based solely upon the numbers available to play in the game. They DON’T change with the size of the jackpot or the number of people playing.
From a practical standpoint, how would lotteries ever be able to tell you the odds if they were based upon the jackpot amount or the number of tickets being purchased? The details would change from minute to minute.
How The Odds Work
Here’s an example of how the odds really work. In Powerball, the odds of winning the jackpot are about 1 in 292.2 million because that’s how many different ways you can combine the numbers available in the game to make a play. You choose 5 numbers from a pool of 1 to 69 for the white balls and another number from a separate pool of 1 to 26 for the red Powerball. There are 292.2 million ways those numbers can be combined.
Each play you buy contains 1 of those combinations. The winning numbers selected in the drawing also are 1 of those combinations. So, there are odds of 1 in 292.2 million that the numbers on your ticket will match all 6 winning numbers in the drawing to win the jackpot.
Those odds never change.
Whether or not you play, the Iowa Lottery wants everyone to have an accurate understanding of how the lottery works. This Truth vs. Myth series is part of that effort.
Hi, Bob. You are absolutely right: Every ticket purchased in a lotto game does have the same odds of winning a prize. To help with background, here are the jackpot winners in Mega Millions in calendar year 2024.
December 27, 2024 - $1.269 billion ($571.9 million cash) won in California. September 10, 2024 - $810 million ($409.3 million cash) won in Texas. June 4, 2024 - $552 million ($260.2 million cash) won in Illinois. March 26, 2024 - $1.128 billion ($536.6 million cash) won in New Jersey.
Posted by: Mary Neubauer | January 16, 2025 at 02:30 PM
Just because there are more tickets sold in California doesn’t mean that the Winning Combination of numbers are more likely to be sold there. Anyone can pick their own numbers in any state that sells them, and every combination has just as much of a chance as all combinations of numbers in a FAIR drawing.. So why does the winner ALWAYS go to California?
Players deserve equal and fair chance at winning no matter where or what
This is just plain rigged!
Posted by: Bob | January 16, 2025 at 01:44 PM
Hi, Bob. You are correct that some of the recent big jackpots have been won by people who purchased their tickets in California. And as the nation's biggest state, it stands to reason that there would be more winners in California. One in eight U.S. residents live in California. And with more people there, more tickets are being purchased there. It does not mean that people in California are luckier, it all comes down to population. Another way to look at it: California, with a state population of about 39 million, is more than 12 times larger than Iowa, with a state population of about 3.2 million. There would be something wrong in the game if California weren't winning more prizes than smaller states. Again, it doesn't mean California is luckier, it just means that more tickets are being purchased there, so there will also be more winners there.
Posted by: Mary Neubauer | January 16, 2025 at 08:59 AM
Here’s a Tip on increasing your odds… Go to California to buy your tickets. Because it’s obviously rigged and that’s the state that ALWAYS I repeat ALWAYS sells the big jackpot winning tickets
Iowa and all the other states need to stand up to this bs!
Posted by: Bob | January 16, 2025 at 08:25 AM