ialottery blog

There Are Long Odds, And Then There Are REALLY Long Odds

In games like Powerball® and Mega Millions®, the long odds of winning the jackpot are often in focus. You don’t get the gigantic top prizes involved without long odds.

But right now, another contest is underway involving even longer odds. It’s kind of a badge of honor to be among those getting the picks wrong because it’s nearly impossible to get them all right.

I’m talking about having a perfect bracket in the men’s or women’s college basketball tournaments. According to the statisticians, if you just take a guess at the outcome of the tournament games, you have odds of about 1 in 9.2 quintillion of picking all 63 games correctly.

A quintillion is one billion billions. It looks like this: 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 (1 followed by 18 zeros).

Apparently, if you know something about basketball, you can lower your odds of getting a perfect bracket down to about 1 in 120.2 billion.

By comparison, the odds of winning the jackpot in Powerball are about 1 in 292.2 million. In Mega Millions, the odds of winning the jackpot are about 1 in 302.6 million.

So, whether you’re tracking your bracket or buying a ticket for that next drawing, just remember to have fun with it. The long odds involved definitely give us all something to talk about!

Mega Millions Jackpot Climbs to $1.35 Billion For Friday's Drawing

The Mega Millions® jackpot is now the second largest in game history, reaching an estimated $1.35 billion annuity, $707.9 million cash option, for Friday’s drawing.

In addition to being one of the biggest jackpots in Mega Millions, the giant prize is now the fourth-highest U.S. lottery jackpot. It follows the world-record Powerball® jackpot of $2.04 billion won in early November.   

An Iowa Ticket Came Close On Tuesday

Iowa Lottery players won a total of 42,591 prizes in Tuesday’s Mega Millions drawing, including a ticket that was just one number away from having at least a share of that night’s big jackpot.

That ticket initially matched four of the first five numbers and the Mega Ball to win a $10,000 prize. However, the person who bought the ticket added the Megaplier® option to the purchase, which multiplied the prize to $30,000.   

The $30,000-winning ticket was purchased at Casey’s, 418 S. Seventh St. in Chariton.

Tuesday’s winning numbers were: 7-13-14-15-18 and Mega Ball 9. The Megaplier number was 3.

A player wins the Mega Millions jackpot by matching all six winning numbers in a drawing. However, there are a total of nine prize levels in Mega Millions ranging from $2 up to the jackpot, so the Iowa Lottery reminds its players to be sure to check their tickets for all the prizes they may have won.

Iowa Lottery players bought nearly $2.4 million in Mega Millions tickets for Tuesday’s drawing, including more than $1.2 million in tickets on Tuesday alone.

I’ve Heard That The Odds Change …

There are a lot of beliefs about playing the lottery, and some of them aren’t accurate. For example, when it comes to the Mega Millions jackpot, some say that players have a harder time winning when the jackpot climbs because more people are buying tickets.

The odds of winning in Mega Millions do not change. They’re the same for every play purchased in the game.

The odds of winning the game’s jackpot are about 1 in 302.6 million because that is how many ways the numbers available in the game can be combined to make a play. When the winning numbers are selected, they’re one of about 302.6 million possibilities.

Will the numbers on your ticket match?

Please Play Responsibly

And as always, the Iowa Lottery reminds everyone that it only takes one ticket to win. Please play responsibly.

Player Questions: What About The Odds In Your Holiday Games?

Now that our holiday-themed scratch games are in stores for the season, we’ve gotten player questions about the number of prizes available in them and their odds of winning.

Our holiday-themed games by design are only on the market for a short period of time – about four months. Many of our other scratch games are sold for a year or two or even longer.

We order smaller quantities of tickets in our holiday games, which means there will be a smaller number of prizes involved. But the key detail to note is that the odds of winning in our holiday games are very similar to those in our other games, so your playing experience won’t change.

“Crossword” games are always a favorite for players, so here is a list of this year’s four holiday-themed versions with their non-holiday counterparts. You’ll see how similar the odds are in them.

    • $2 games: $20,000 Holiday Crossword and Four Corners Crossword.
    • $3 games: Candy Cane Crossword and Bonus Crossword.
    • $5 games: Peng-win Crossword and $50,000 Super Crossword.
    • $10 games: Very Merry Crossword and $100,000 Mega Crossword.

In the $2 games, the $20,000 holiday game has overall odds of winning of 1 in 3.42 while its non-holiday counterpart has overall odds of 1 in 3.33.

Both of the $3 Crossword games have the exact same overall odds of winning: 1 in 3.52.

At the $5 price point, the Peng-win Crossword game has overall odds of winning of 1 in 3.34 while its non-holiday counterpart has overall odds of 1 in 3.53.

And for the $10 games, Very Merry Crossword has overall odds of winning of 1 in 3.29 compared to overall odds of 1 in 3.30 for the non-holiday version.

We do our best to keep the game designs in line with each other because we want you to have the same “feel” as you play them. We know that’s part of the fun.

Then there are the folks who say they like our non-holiday games and want to see them come back. And they will!

Our holiday-themed games will only be on the market until early January, and then our other games will cycle back onto store shelves when the holidays are over.

Powerball Jackpot: Winning Numbers In The World-Record $1.657 Billion Drawing

Update at 10:15 p.m. on Saturday, Nov. 5: The winning numbers in tonight's huge Powerball drawing are: 28-45-53-56-69 and Powerball 20. The Power Play number is 3.

Tonight's jackpot ended up at a world-record $1.657 billion annuity. We'll see in the morning how Iowa did and if anybody nationwide won the truly GRAND prize! Thank you to everyone who played and was part of this moment. Good luck on your tickets!

Easy Pick vs. Your Own Numbers

The vast majority of tickets purchased in games like Powerball and Mega Millions® are easy-pick plays, meaning that the lottery terminal assigns the numbers printed on the ticket. About 93 percent of the plays purchased in Iowa for tonight’s drawing were easy picks.

But players also can choose their own numbers. They choose five numbers from a pool of 1 to 69 for the white balls and one number from a separate pool of 26 for the red Powerball.

Neither option is luckier. The odds of winning are the same for every ticket purchased in the game. There are more winners from easy-pick tickets simply because the majority of tickets purchased are easy picks.

A player wins the jackpot by matching all six winning numbers in a Powerball drawing. However, there are a total of nine prize levels in Powerball ranging from $4 up to the jackpot, so the Iowa Lottery reminds its players to be sure to check your tickets for all the prizes you may have won.

What Does ‘Coverage’ Mean & Why Does It Matter?

By tracking sales, lottery officials can estimate how many of all the possible combinations in the game have been purchased for a particular drawing. It’s called coverage – how many of the combinations have been “covered.”

The coverage estimate heading into tonight’s Powerball drawing was about 60 percent.

A higher coverage percentage can mean it’s more likely there will be a jackpot winner, but it’s not a definite.

Two Iowa Tickets Came SO CLOSE

Iowa Lottery players won a total of 68,008 prizes in Wednesday’s Powerball drawing, including two tickets that were just one number away from having at least a share of the big jackpot.

The two tickets each matched four of the first five numbers and the Powerball to win a $50,000 prize. In an interesting twist, they were purchased at the same store: the Kwik Star at 1800 Blairs Ferry Road NE in Hiawatha.

A group of 21 co-workers at a Hiawatha engineering firm claimed one of the $50,000 prizes on Thursday. And a group of 10 co-workers at a Hiawatha manufacturer claimed the other $50,000 prize yesterday.

The members of both groups pitched in money at work for office-pool tickets, agreeing to split any winnings.

The co-workers who claimed their prize Thursday call themselves Hallin’ Cash. They’re all employees at Hall & Hall Engineers Inc. in Hiawatha.

The group that claimed its prize yesterday calls itself “One Link Short.” All of its members work at RUD Chain in Hiawatha, a company that produces chains for tires.

Wednesday’s winning numbers were: 2-11-22-35-60 and Powerball 23. The Power Play® number was 2.

While each group’s winning easy-pick tickets matched four of the five white balls and the Powerball, the numbers on their tickets were slightly different. The Hallin’ Cash ticket missed white ball 22, while One Link Short’s ticket missed white ball 35.

Where Can You See The Drawing?

The Powerball drawing is livestreamed on the Iowa Lottery website as it occurs at 9:59 p.m. on Mondays, Wednesdays and Saturdays. Video of the latest drawing then remains on the site until the next drawing occurs. The livestream is on the Powerball page of the lottery’s website here.

As the drawing time approaches, a countdown clock will show in the video box on the page.

How Has The Jackpot Grown By So Much?

As the Powerball jackpot has continued to climb, the amounts by which it has increased between drawings have grown larger. The Iowa Lottery has gotten questions from players wondering how it can jump up by so much.

Sales are a driving factor behind the jackpot amount. And sales follow the jackpot up. As the jackpot climbs, sales increase. And that in turn causes the jackpot to climb even higher.

When the jackpot is in the stratosphere like it is now, it can increase by millions of dollars between drawings. That huge increases show just how many people are playing the game across the country in the 48 jurisdictions that sell Powerball tickets.

Please Play Responsibly

And as always, the Iowa Lottery reminds everyone that it only takes one ticket to win. Please play responsibly. The mantra that applies: Playing smart is a lot more fun.

Player question: About that Lotto America® jackpot

A player wrote to us this month and asked why it seemed like there were fewer jackpots in Lotto America than in comparable lotto games like Powerball® and Mega Millions®. He noted that the Lotto America jackpot hadn’t been hit in quite a while and wondered why.

It’s true: There have been seven Lotto America jackpot winners since the game began in November 2017, and the jackpot hasn’t been hit in more than 10 months. The last time it was won came on July 14, 2021, when a ticket purchased in Oklahoma won an $8.04 million jackpot.

But why has it been so long? It comes down to numbers. While Lotto America is a multi-state game that features a play style very similar to Powerball and Mega Millions, it’s played in far fewer states than its big brothers. There are 13 participating states in Lotto America: Iowa, Delaware, Idaho, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Tennessee, South Dakota and West Virginia. This is a far cry from Powerball, with 48 participating lotteries, and Mega Millions, with 47.

Fewer participating states means fewer tickets are sold in any given drawing. And the less tickets that are sold, the less likely it is that the jackpot will be hit. This is true even though the odds of hitting the jackpot in Lotto America (1 in 26 million) are better than the odds of doing the same in Powerball (1 in 292.2 million) or Mega Millions (1 in 302.6 million).

We hear from many players who love Lotto America because it offers a chance at a multi-million dollar jackpot for only $1 per play. And with Wednesday’s jackpot at an estimated $13.79 million, there’s no doubt that players are eager to see where the next jackpot will be won.

Will TwosDay prove lucky for Pick 3 & Pick 4 players?

Next week, an interesting date will occur that involves A LOT of 2s, and we wonder what it may mean for a couple of our lotto games.

It’s being called TwosDay: Feb. 22, 2022.

On dates that involve repeat numbers, we’ve often seen players choose identical sets of numbers in our Pick 3 and Pick 4 games. And when sales with those same numbers reach a certain point, they’re considered “sold out” in our system. But why?

On Sept. 9, 2009, the combinations of 9-9-9 sold out in Pick 3 and 9-9-0-9 sold out in Pick 4. The same thing has happened with the corresponding numbers on Aug. 8, 2008, and July 7, 2007. When a set of numbers is sold out, it means that the liability limit has been reached. Lotteries have liability limits in Pick 3 and Pick 4 games to protect the integrity of the games and the proceeds that the lottery raises for state causes.

The liability limits don’t get hit very often, but when they do, that particular set of numbers will be sold out for that particular drawing, and you’ll have to choose a different combination to play that time around. The combination will be available again for the next drawing, assuming that the liability limit isn’t reached the next time around as well.

And even though a particular set of numbers may see a surge in popularity, it doesn’t make it luckier than another play. The odds of winning are the same for any play in our games. We as human beings just like patterns, and dates like 2-22-22 always catch our attention.

We can’t wait to see what TwosDay brings!

What The Odds Mean – And What They DON’T

A question that just came our way is a reminder that sometimes, you can’t touch on a topic enough. I’m talking about the odds of winning in our games – what they mean and what they don’t.

A player reached out to us after buying two tickets in the Lucky Numbers Game Book and not winning a prize. The player noticed that the game’s overall odds of winning are 1 in 2.51 and apparently thought that meant one of their tickets was guaranteed to win. But that’s not correct.

Think of it like a deck of cards: With four suits in a deck (spades, clubs, diamonds, hearts), there’s about a 1 in 4 chance that the next card up will be in a specific suit. But once you shuffle the deck, you can go through a lot of cards in a row before you find a card in a specific suit.

It’s the same thing in our scratch games: Winning tickets are randomly distributed throughout the game so no one – not even those of us who work at the lottery – knows when or where the next big winner will hit.

We’re not joking, we’re not lying, and our odds aren’t wrong.

We made the video below to explain the odds. I hope its visuals help tell the story.

We Really Mean It: If Playing The Lottery Makes You Unhappy, Take A Break Or Stop

You’ve heard us say this before, but it bears repeating: If playing the lottery is making you unhappy or causing you stress, please take a break or stop completely.

We’ve heard from a few folks recently who are really unhappy with their lottery play and have definitely let us know that. Their inquiries were a reminder for me to revisit the issue here on the blog.      

We want you to know your limits, both monetarily and emotionally. Buying lottery tickets should never be a way to fulfill a financial need. Winning AND not winning are both part of playing the lottery. It’s not a source of income or an investment.

Lottery tickets are something you should buy just for fun from your discretionary spending. That's the money you have left to spend, invest or save after you've paid for necessities like food, clothing, and housing. From your disposable income, you can choose to buy things like movies, books, exercise gear – or lottery tickets.

The definition of "playing within your means" varies from person to person along with their income and circumstances. If you decide to play the lottery, determine in advance how much you want to spend and then follow that plan. When you do that, you're more likely to stay within your set limit and not overspend.

We keep a lot of tips and reminders under the “Play Smart, Be Informed” player’s guide on our website. Check out the details there to see how you’re doing in knowing lottery facts.

Player Question: Are You Sure About The Odds In Your InstaPlay Games?

A player who emailed us this week had some good questions about our InstaPlay games, but also some misconceptions about how they actually work. He wondered if the odds we give for the games are correct. They are, and here’s the background involved:  

You’ve likely heard us describe the InstaPlay product as combining features from both lotto and scratch games. InstaPlay tickets are printed from the lottery terminal on demand as are tickets in lotto games like Powerball® and Mega Millions®, but the prize structures in InstaPlay games are similar to those of scratch games.

So, in producing an InstaPlay ticket, the lottery terminal does not utilize an internal randomizer to determine the outcome of the ticket. Rather, it dispenses the next ticket available in the game.

That is because InstaPlay games are like scratch games, but with the plays involved left in electronic form rather than printed out onto tickets. And just as it happens in our scratch games, the next available play is sold when an InstaPlay ticket is purchased.

The lottery terminals in the 2,400 retail locations in Iowa where lottery tickets are sold are connected to a central communications hub. Through that central backbone, the terminals receive the data involved to print the next available play in the game when an InstaPlay purchase is made.

There is a single supply of tickets in each InstaPlay game, and winning tickets are randomly distributed within that universe of tickets. No one – not even those of us who work at the lottery – knows where within the pool of tickets the winning tickets are located or when the next big winner will hit.

The overall odds listed for our InstaPlay games are correct. Two jackpots may be won in the same game somewhat close together, or it could be weeks between jackpots being hit. That’s what occurs with the random distribution of winning tickets. 

Player Mail: Why Do ‘Only People From CA, FL & NY’ Win?

A player just emailed us with a question you may have wondered about as well, and the answer comes down to population.

The player wondered why it seems like more people win lottery jackpots in states like California, Florida and New York than they do in Iowa. It’s NOT because folks in those places are luckier. It’s simply due to those states’ populations compared to that of Iowa.

In a game like Powerball, the odds of winning are the same for every ticket sold, no matter where you make your purchase. But in states with bigger populations, more people live there, so there are more people buying lottery tickets – and winning prizes. Another way of putting that is that if 5 percent of lottery tickets are sold in a particular area, you expect to find about 5 percent of the prize winners there. Everyone has the same chance of winning, but there will be more winners in places where more tickets are sold.

Powerball is sold by 47 U.S. lotteries, including those in some of our nation’s biggest states.  (California is No. 1 in terms of state population, followed by Texas, Florida and New York. All of those states sell Powerball.) Iowa, with a population of about 3.1 million, is a fairly small state within the Powerball group, but the numbers show we’re doing well in terms of jackpot winners here.

Eight Iowa Lottery players have won Powerball jackpots through the years, including the largest lottery prize to date in Iowa, a $241 million Powerball prize claimed in June 2012 by a group of 20 co-workers from the Quaker Oats plant in Cedar Rapids.

Player Mail: I Think Your Odds Are Wrong

This topic seems to be a perennial one when it comes to lottery games, and in general the questions we receive about it come from folks who didn’t win a prize on a particular ticket and aren’t happy about that. They question whether something is wrong with the overall odds information we post for our lottery games.

I get it: Winning a prize is obviously one of the main reasons that people play the lottery. But remember that each play is based solely on random chance. There are many winning tickets, but your purchase does not guarantee a winner.

We honestly mean it when we say that if playing the lottery is something that causes you stress, then please don’t do it. A lottery ticket is always an optional purchase, and how you choose to spend your discretionary income is entirely up to you as a consumer.

The bottom line is, people win prizes all over the state. And not even we know when the next big one will hit.

So what do the odds really mean? Click on the video above to learn more.

Dueling Jackpots Top $400 Million At Same Time To Start Off New Year!

For the first time ever, the jackpots in Powerball and Mega Millions have topped the $400 million mark at the same time. The Mega Millions jackpot is an estimated $445 million annuity ($277.6 million cash option) for Friday, while Powerball’s big prize is an estimated $550 million annuity ($347.9 million cash option) for Saturday. Both jackpots now rank in the Top 15 overall for record U.S. lottery prizes!

In August, both games saw jackpots that topped the $300 million mark simultaneously, but this time around both prizes have climbed even higher at the same time. That speaks to the unpredictable factor of lottery jackpots: You just never know when the next big winner will hit!

We're still on the look-out for a $1 million winner in central Iowa.

While the jackpots in both games have been climbing since October, there have been winners at other prize levels across the country, including a $1 million winner in Iowa. Someone who bought a Powerball ticket in central Iowa won a $1 million prize in the final drawing of 2017. The $1 million-winning ticket was purchased at the Kum & Go convenience store at 1200 N. Walnut St. in Colfax. It came within one number of having at least a share of Saturday’s $390.1 million Powerball jackpot, matching the first five numbers but missing the Powerball.

Kum & Go will receive a $1,000 bonus from the lottery for selling the $1 million-winning ticket at one of its stores.

Prizes of $1 million must be claimed at Iowa Lottery headquarters in Clive. If the winner or winners need information before coming forward to claim the prize, they are invited to call the lottery at 515-725-7900.

Here's a few historic facts about these dueling jackpots: 

Powerball’s big prize now ranks at No. 8 overall on the list of record U.S. lottery jackpots, while the Mega Millions jackpot is currently ranked No. 12.

And while the bigger games are a big run, the Lotto America jackpot also is really getting up there. Lotto America is a smaller regional game played by Iowa and 12 other lotteries. The jackpot in that game is at an estimated $17.58 million for Saturday’s drawing.

Some may wonder, would it be possible for one person to win the jackpots in both Mega Millions and Powerball? The short answer is: Yes, but …

It takes long odds to produce big jackpots. The odds of winning the jackpot in Mega Millions are about 1 in 302.6 million. The odds of winning the jackpot in Powerball are about 1 in 292.2 million. (The odds are based upon the total number of combinations available to play in each game.) To calculate the odds of winning both jackpots, you multiply 302.6 million by 292.2 million. The answer involves a lot of zeroes: about 1 in 88 quadrillion (that’s 88,000,000,000,000,000).

“Winning both jackpots is something fun to daydream about, but it’s probably the ultimate long shot,” Iowa Lottery CEO Terry Rich said. “That’s why we emphasize responsible play. Have fun playing the lottery, but remember that it’s just for entertainment. There is no guarantee you will win.”

So what’s behind the these giant numbers? Prior to January 2010, Mega Millions and Powerball were sold by separate groups of lotteries. U.S. lottery directors reached an agreement back then that allowed both games to be sold by all states. With more states selling a particular game, there is a bigger population base playing it, which produces higher sales overall and helps the jackpot climb higher.

The jackpots in both games have been growing for some time now. The Mega Millions jackpot was last won in the drawing on Oct. 13, split by two tickets purchased in Michigan and Rhode Island. It’s been growing since that time to hit its current level. Players can buy tickets in Iowa for the next Mega Millions drawing up until 8:59 p.m. Friday.

The Powerball jackpot was last won on Oct. 25 with a ticket purchased in Louisiana. Players can buy tickets here in Iowa for Saturday’s Powerball jackpot up until 8:59 p.m. that day.

It is true that both games have seen bigger jackpots, but not at the same time! Mega Millions and Powerball have both seen jackpots much larger than their current amounts, but not at the same time. Powerball currently has the world record lottery jackpot: a prize of nearly $1.6 billion that was split in January 2016 by three tickets in California, Florida and Tennessee. The largest Mega Millions jackpot to date is a $656 million prize won in March 2012 by three tickets in Illinois, Kansas and Maryland.

Here's a little compare and contrast for you:

Powerball jackpots start at $40 million and grow until they’re won. You choose five numbers from a pool of 69 and another number – the Powerball – from a separate pool of 26. If you match all six numbers, you win the jackpot, and there also are eight other prize levels you can win. Plays cost $2 and drawings are at 9:59 p.m. on Wednesdays and Saturdays.

Mega Millions jackpots also start at $40 million and grow until they’re won. Players in the game choose five numbers from a pool of 70 and another number – the Mega Ball – from a separate pool of 25 numbers. If you match all six numbers, you win the jackpot, and there are eight other prize levels you can win. Tickets cost $2 and drawings are at 10 p.m. on Tuesdays and Fridays.

Both games have a multiplier feature that costs an extra $1 per play and multiplies any non-jackpot prize won. Jackpot winners in both games can choose to receive their prize in annuitized payments over time or in a one-time, lump-sum payment.

If I’ve Already Won The Jackpot/Top Prize, Can I Still Play?

This question goes in the category of “planning ahead.”

One of our players recently sent us this question: If I win the jackpot, can I still play? The short answer is yes. There is nothing that will preclude you from playing the lottery if you win a lotto jackpot or the top prize in one of our other games.

An obvious part of that conversation, however, includes discussion of the odds involved. There would be long odds of someone winning multiple lotto jackpots. But it is within the realm of possibility.

In any case, we do our best to make the prize-claim process fun and memorable at our offices whenever someone comes to see us!

So, you’re probably wondering: Have there been players who have won more than one top prize in Iowa Lottery games? Certainly, games like Pick 3 and Pick 4, which have smaller top prizes but easier odds to win, have seen lots of repeat top-prize winners. So have our scratch and pull-tab games.

The two men in the pictures here both are repeat top-prize winners in our scratch games. Brandon Kaiser of Cedar Rapids and Clark Voge of Cherokee both claimed multiple scratch-game prizes in  the spring of 2016. 

But to date, no one has been a repeat jackpot winner in Powerball® or Mega Millions®.

 

What Do The Odds Of Winning Really Mean?

 

Let’s see if these new visuals help explain what the odds of winning in lottery games mean.

Using A Deck Of Cards To Explain Lottery Odds

Someone recently suggested using a deck of cards to explain how the odds work in lottery games, so I’m giving it a try. You’ll have to let me know how we did!

In a deck of cards, there is about a 1 in 4 chance that you’ll find a card in one of the suits – diamonds, clubs, hearts or spades. (I say “about” 1 in 4 because with the two jokers included, there are 54 cards in a deck.) But after you’ve shuffled the deck, there will be times when you deal more than four cards in a row without finding one in a particular suit.

It works the same way with tickets in our instant-scratch and pull-tab games. If a scratch game has overall odds of winning of about 1:3, that doesn't mean that if you buy four tickets, one of them will automatically be a winner. It means that if you were to buy all of the tickets available in that game, approximately 1 in 4 of them would win a prize. 

The tickets within our games are distributed randomly, just like the shuffled cards within a deck. That’s part of our security procedures, and not even we know where the winning tickets are or which stores will receive them. So, there could be three winning tickets in a row in one of our games, and then several nonwinning tickets in a row after that. We work hard to ensure that everyone has the same fair shot at winning. 

The bottom line is, big winners happen all over the state, and higher ticket sales at a particular location will mean more winners there as well. Some busy locations where scratch tickets are sold sell several times as many tickets as others, and therefore they sell through ticket packs more often, creating more winners.

The odds in lotto games like Powerball® and Mega Millions® work differently than those in scratch and pull-tab games. In lotto games, the odds of winning a prize are based on all of the possible combinations of numbers available to play in the game. In Powerball, for example, the odds of winning the jackpot are about 1:292.2 million because that’s how many different ways you can combine the numbers available in the game to make a play.

I’ve blogged many times through the years about the odds in our games and what they mean. I hope today’s explanation has given you a new visual picture of how the odds work. Next time someone asks you how the odds work in a lottery game, you can give the deck of cards example and be totally “in the know!”

Player Mail: Not For Another 10,000 Drawings!

I’m writing this time around about the odds of winning in our Pick 3 and Pick 4 games after covering that topic in an exchange with a player from Winterset. The issue of odds can be a confusing area, but let’s see if we can find our way through it.

It appears the player thought that if the odds of winning the top prize are 1 in 10,000, as they are in Pick 4, then a particular combination of winning numbers can only be selected every 10,000 drawings. But that’s not the case.

The odds of winning in our lotto games are based upon all the different ways you can combine the available numbers to make a play. In Pick 4, the odds of winning the top prize are 1 in 10,000 because there are 10,000 ways you can combine the numbers 0-9 to make a four-digit straight play. And in Pick 3, the odds of winning the top prize are 1 in 1,000 because there are 1,000 ways you can combine the numbers 0-9 to make a three-digit straight play.

To dig into it even deeper, each Pick 4 drawing is actually comprised of four separate drawings – one for each of the winning numbers chosen. The numbers 0-9 are available each time, making the odds of matching each of the four numbers 1 in 10. The math looks like this: 10 x 10 x 10 x 10 = 10,000.

Each lottery drawing is a unique, random event, and the outcome of one drawing has no impact on the next. A particular set of numbers can be selected in back-to-back drawings. Or, it could be a long time before that set is selected again. That’s precisely how random drawings are supposed to work.        

But what about sets of numbers that look similar? Let’s take these two combinations as an example: 2-6-7-5 and 6-2-5-7. Remember that in a game like Pick 4, each of the numbers is selected in a separate drawing with a pool of 0-9 available. So in the example, there wasn’t a duplicate in any of the four spots, let alone the combination as a whole. But there could have been, and that would be OK.

Has that made it more clear, or did all this math just give you a headache?!

What Are The Odds Of THIS Happening?

A woman from northern Iowa wrote to us this month about one of the coolest coincidences we've seen involving lottery tickets.

Barbara Pauk of Garner said she was playing the "Bonus Crossword" game when she found her last name - P-A-U-K - spelled out in the play area on her ticket. So she wanted to know: What are the odds of that?

We were able to provide at least part of the answer. The game rules for Bonus Crossword show that about 7.8 million tickets were printed in the game. So the odds that somebody would buy a particular ticket in it are about 1 in 7.8 million.

But to truly determine the odds of someone named Pauk buying the ticket that Barbara purchased, we would have to know how many people with her last name there are in the world, and the likelihood that a percentage of them would be in Iowa and buy a ticket. So I don't think we can completely answer the question. But what a great story!

(The picture you see with this blog entry is the photocopied image that Barbara sent us of her ticket. And who knows? Maybe she'll find her name on a ticket again someday...)

Player Mail: What Determines The Top Prizes In Your Scratch Games?

Here’s a great question from a man on Facebook. Bryce asked us: “How come other states offer much larger prizes on their scratch tickets?”

It’s a two-part answer. A portion of it is what we do in the planning of our games. But a big part also is simply determined by population.

The planning part comes as we do our best to keep a variety of games in the marketplace to meet player tastes. We do our best to have out there different game designs, colors, price points, themes and prize structures, understanding that what works for one person may not interest another at all. Variety is the spice of life!

That means that games at the same price point may offer drastically different top prizes because different players look for different things in the tickets they choose to play. Take our current $20 scratch games as an example. “The BIG Ticket” and “Little Black Game Book” both offer a top prize of $100,000 while the “$250,000 Riches” game has a top prize of $250,000. The first two offer extended playing time, with several different spots to play on one ticket. Those games also have more smaller prizes in them, so the top prize involved is not quite as high. The $250,000 Riches game, on the other hand, puts more concentration on the top prize.

That’s because some people want to play for bigger prizes while others prefer a better chance to win a prize at any level. We hope that by having a variety of games out there, you’ll find something that you like.

Population is the other big factor when it comes to determining the prizes that can be offered in a particular game. A lottery in a state with a larger population is going to be able to design a game with bigger prizes – and more of them – simply because that state will have so many more people playing it. A greater population base means larger sales overall, which in turn supports higher prizes.

With a population of 3.1 million, Iowa’s is fairly small compared to states like California (38.8 million) or Florida (19.9 million). But when it comes to being inventive and coming up with new game ideas, we think we’re small but mighty!

Player Mail: Is The Power Play Number Really Random?

A man named Dave just sent us an interesting question about the Power Play® option in the Powerball® game. Here is what he was wondering: “I see the multiplier 2 comes up a lot on the drawings as it did last night. How many 2, 3, 4, 5, and 10 balls are in the drum?”

A lot of times, I know the answer to a lottery-related question off the top of my head. But I had to do a little research to find the details involved this time around. The answer can be found in the Powerball game rules. (I won’t make you read that whole document, I’ll just give you the specifics here.)
 
Remember that the Power Play option now has different numbers involved depending upon the jackpot amount in the game. When the jackpot for the next Powerball drawing is $150 million or less, a 10X is added to the Power Play pool, giving players the chance to multiply most prize levels by up to 10 times.

When the jackpot in the game is more than $150 million, the 10X feature isn’t available, so the multipliers that can be selected are 2X-5X.

When the 10X is included, there are 43 numbers in the Power Play pool. Of those 43 numbers, 24 of them are 2s, 13 are 3s, 3 are 4s, 2 are 5s and one of the numbers is a 10. Here’s what that looks like in table form:

43 Total Numbers In Power Play Pool
2X = 24
3X = 13
4X = 3
5X = 2
10X = 1

When the 10X isn’t included, there are 42 numbers in the Power Play pool, and the allocation at the other multiplier levels remains the same.

So, does it stand to reason that the Power Play number would come up more often as 2 or a 3? Yes. But the other multipliers also have a shot.

Thanks for the question, Dave! You ended up giving us a good Power Play refresher.

Identical Winning Numbers In Back-to-Back Drawings!

Your eyes aren’t playing tricks on you: The winning numbers really were the same in both Pick 3 drawings yesterday here in Iowa.

Yep! The winning numbers were 3-7-3 in yesterday’s midday and evening Pick 3 drawings. We’re hearing from folks this morning who wonder if there’s something wrong.

There isn’t – this happens every few years or so. It’s unusual, but it also is entirely possible for the same numbers to be drawn at any time. The odds are the same for any particular number to be selected in any drawing. That’s what comes with the laws of random statistics!  

Maybe it’s carryover good luck from St. Patty’s Day? Can’t wait to see what the winning numbers are today…

Player Mail: Why Do Only Rural/Urban/Young/Old People Win?

One of the topics that comes our way the most seems to focus on the belief that only certain kinds of people win – rural, urban, young, old, tall, short, etc., etc. But interestingly, there’s no button on a lottery machine that says only “those people” can win.

If you look at any group of players – those in a particular state, those with a certain hair color, those who wear certain clothes – that group will win in proportion to the percentage that they play. Another way of putting that is that if a defined group buys 10 percent of the tickets, they’ll win 10 percent of the prizes on average and over a reasonable period of time.

The same holds true for folks in different states. If 5 percent of lottery tickets are purchased in a particular area, you’ll expect to find that about 5 percent of the overall winners are from there as well. And that's been the case with the Iowa Lottery.  

Now, it is true that with more people living in bigger cities, more people are buying lottery tickets there and winning prizes. It doesn’t mean that they’re luckier – everyone has the same chance of winning – but there will be more winners in the places where more tickets are being sold.

Bottomline, it really doesn’t make any difference where you buy your tickets or what kind of person you are – lottery winners are determined by nothing more than pure, random chance. Everyone has the same shot at winning, and it’s our job to ensure that’s the case. 

Which Is Better: Easy Pick or Play Slip?

A woman on Facebook just raised a question we hear a lot: What's the best option when it comes to playing lotto games like Powerball® and Mega Millions® - easy pick or play slip? I think the bottom-line thing people want to know is whether one of the options will give them a better chance of winning.

The short answer is that it doesn't matter - every play in our games has the same fair shot at a prize, but some additional background will help spell it out.

In our lotto games, you have the option of choosing your own numbers or letting the computer generate plays for you. To choose your own numbers, you can mark them on a play slip or ask the clerk to key in the numbers you want. To let the computer generate numbers for you in an easy pick play, just tell the clerk you want an easy pick or mark "easy pick" on a play slip.

Either way, the set of numbers you end up with will have the same chance of winning as any other play in the game. There isn't one set of odds for easy picks and another set for the numbers you choose yourself. The odds of winning are exactly the same for each ticket sold in the game.

There is a difference, however, in the volume of the two types of plays being made. About 70 percent to 80 percent of the tickets purchased in lotto games are easy picks. It stands to reason then, that about 70 percent to 80 percent of the winners would be from easy-pick plays, and that is the case.

It doesn’t mean that easy-picks have better odds of winning, it just means that people are making more of them.

More Player Mail, This Time About All or Nothing…

I think this week’s warmer weather has us all poking our heads up above ground again because we’re getting player mail about all sorts of topics! Several of the questions have been about our new All or Nothing™ lotto game as folks continue to learn about it.

A few people who contacted us said they thought there were only two ways to win in the game – by matching all of the numbers in one of its drawings or none of them. Well, that IS the name of the game and it does signify that you can win its top prize by matching all or nothing. But there are eight other ways to win in it, too, so be sure to check your ticket for those prizes as well!

One woman who reached out to us was afraid she’d thrown away a $20 winning ticket because she didn’t realize that was one of the game’s prize levels. Be sure to check your tickets for any prize you may have won, not just the top prize!

We’ve described the prize structure in All or Nothing as looking like an hourglass with all the different ways you can win, so I’ve included that graphic here. I think it’s a good illustration!

And get this: Since All or Nothing started in late January, Iowa Lottery players have won nearly 203,000 prizes in the game, including 48 prizes of $1,000 for matching 11 numbers and 52 prizes of $1,000 for matching just one number. Kinda cool that it’s so evenly split.

Mega Millions Update Coming Next Month

Here’s a head’s up that changes are coming in the Mega Millions® game next month. And like the updates that were made in Powerball® last year, they’ll mean a higher starting jackpot, faster growing jackpots and a $1 million second prize. But the price of a Mega Millions ticket will remain unchanged at $1, and while there will be better overall odds of winning any prize, the odds in all nine of the game’s prize levels will change, with some growing longer and others decreasing.

We think the changes will turn up the excitement level while continuing to differentiate Powerball and Mega Millions as separate premier big-jackpot games, each with its own features.

Starting with the Mega Millions drawing on Oct. 22, the game’s minimum starting jackpot will increase from $12 million to $15 million, and the jackpot will grow by at least $5 million between drawings when no one wins the big prize.

The numbers available to play in Mega Millions will change with the new version of the game. Players will choose five balls from a pool of 75 (currently 56) and another number, called the Mega Ball®, from a separate pool of 15 (currently 46). The result will be overall odds of about 1 in 15 to win any prize (currently about 1:40). 

Under the new matrix, the odds of winning the jackpot move to 1 in 258.9 million (currently 1:175.7 million).

Here are some of the other enhancements that players will see:
•    The Megaplier, a multiplier option that players can purchase for an additional $1 per play to increase their non-jackpot prizes, will be expanded to include a factor of five (currently four). That means a Mega Millions ticket will be able to win up to $5 million even without matching all six numbers.
•    The Mega Millions prize structure also will change. For example, the game’s second prize will increase from $250,000 to $1 million for matching the first five numbers.

Here is what the Mega Millions prize structure will look like effective next month:

Mega Millions Prize Structure effective October 2013
Match	Base Prize	Odds: 1 in
5 + Mega Ball	JACKPOT	258,890,850
5 (no Mega Ball)	$1 million	18,492,204
4 + Mega Ball	$5,000	738,688
4 (no Mega Ball)	$500	52,835
3 + Mega Ball	$50	10,720
3 (no Mega Ball)	$5	766
2 + Mega Ball	$5	473
1 + Mega Ball	$2	56
0 + Mega Ball	$1	21
overall odds of winning a prize: 1 in 14.7

Beginning tomorrow, the number of Mega Millions drawings for which you can purchase plays in advance will gradually decrease until the start of the revamped game. Then they’ll go back to the usual 10 drawings in advance once the redesign takes effect. 

Mega Millions tickets have been sold in Iowa since 2010; Powerball since 1992. The last time the Mega Millions matrix changed was in June 2005.

In addition to Mega Millions and Powerball, the Iowa Lottery sells four other numbers games: Hot Lotto®, Pick 3, Pick 4 and Iowa’s $100,000 Cash Game.

How Do Those Lottery Odds Work?

We've blogged about this issue before, but it is still one of the topics we receive ongoing questions about, so I'll cover it again here. Nothing like an oldie but a goodie!

Players are always asking us about the odds in our lottery games, particularly instant-scratch games. And we understand -- the laws of random statistics can be a difficult concept to absorb, even for those of us who work here.

Lottery players across Iowa win prizes each day, but the thing to remember is that each play is based solely on random chance. There are many winning tickets, but your purchase does not guarantee a winner.

Let’s take the scratch game “Super Crossword” as an example. The overall odds of winning a prize in that $5 game are about 1 in 3.69. So, the question we often get goes something like this: “The overall odds said 1:3.69, but I bought 4 tickets and I didn’t win, so your odds must be wrong.” But in fact, they’re not.

The overall odds of winning on a scratch ticket apply to each ticket purchased in a game, not a series of tickets. So, if a scratch game has overall odds of winning of about 1:4, that doesn't mean that if you buy four tickets that one will automatically be a winner. It means that if you were to buy all of the tickets available in that game, approximately 1 in 4 of them would win a prize.
 
It’s also important to know that the distribution of tickets within our games is completely random. That’s part of the security process involved in running a lottery; not even our sales representatives who deliver our tickets to stores know where the winning tickets are or which stores will receive them. So, there could be three winning tickets in a row in one of our games, and then several nonwinning tickets after that. Security is of the utmost concern at the Iowa Lottery -- people play our games because they understand the integrity behind our products. We work hard to ensure that everyone has the same fair shot at winning.
 
The bottom line is, big winners happen all over the state at various retail locations, and higher ticket sales at a particular location do mean more winners there as well. Some busy locations where scratch tickets are sold sell several times as many tickets as others, and therefore cycle through ticket packs more often - creating more winners.

We keep a complete list of winners on our website, as well as a list of all the remaining prizes in our instant-scratch games.
 
We always encourage our players to remember the entertainment that lottery games have provided them and the help that lottery proceeds have meant to the state of Iowa. Players not only are playing a lottery ticket in the hopes of winning money, they're entertaining themselves and enjoying the experience. Since the Iowa Lottery's start in 1985, our players have won more than $3 billion in prizes while the lottery has raised more than $1.4 billion for state programs.

‘Lucky’ Numbers In Powerball?

A suburban Chicago newspaper has conducted its own study of the numbers selected in Powerball drawings through the years and has an interesting take on what it all means to lottery players. Check out the Daily Herald’s story here.   

Explaining The Odds

We’ve talked about it here before, but probably the most common question we get is about the odds in lottery games, especially instant-scratch games.

Lottery players across Iowa win prizes each day, but everyone should remember that each play is based solely on random chance. There are many winning tickets, but your purchase does not guarantee a winner.

Let’s take the scratch game “Dough Plow” as an example. The overall odds of winning a prize in that $1 game are 1 in 4.65. So, the question we often get goes something like this: “The overall odds said 1:4.65, but I bought 5 tickets and I didn’t win, so your odds must be wrong.” In fact, they’re not.

The overall odds of winning on a scratch ticket apply to each ticket purchased in a game, not a series of tickets. So, if a scratch game has overall odds of winning of 1:3, that doesn't mean that if you buy three tickets that one will be a winner. It means that if you were to buy all of the tickets available in that game, approximately 1 in 3 of them would win a prize.
 
It’s also important to know that the distribution of tickets within our games is completely random. That’s part of the security process involved in running a lottery; not even our sales representatives who deliver tickets to stores know how many winning tickets are in a particular pack. So, there could be three winning tickets in a row in one of our games, and then several nonwinning tickets after that. Security is of the utmost concern at the Iowa Lottery -- people play our games because they understand the integrity behind our products.
 
The bottom line is, big winners happen all over the state at various retail locations, and higher ticket sales at a particular location do mean more winners there as well. Some busy locations where scratch tickets are sold sell several times as many tickets as others, and therefore replace ticket packs more often - creating more winners.

We keep a complete list of winners on our Web site, as well as a list of all the remaining prizes in our instant-scratch games.
 
We always encourage our players to remember the entertainment that lottery games have provided them and the help that lottery money has meant to the state of Iowa. Players not only are playing a lottery ticket in the hopes of winning money, they are entertaining themselves and enjoying the experience. Since the Iowa Lottery's start in 1985, its players have won more than $2.4 billion in prizes while the lottery has raised more than $1.2 billion for state programs.